The threat of war between Iran and USA looms large in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait one of the most narrowest (barely 55 kms. wide) but one of the most strategic as regards to the export value of Crude Oil lies between the gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. About 1/5thof the world trade of crude passes through this strait most of which is from Iran and the Saudi Arabian Kingdom.
The proximity of the Saudis to US since the Gulf war is well known and this ‘’marriage of convenience’ between the two does not go well with the Iranian authorities since times immemorial.
The face- off between US and the Iranians dates back to April 1988 when the US vessel USS Samuel Roberts was severely mauled in a surprise mine attack launched by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
This attack was repulsed with the US Navy sinking/damaging a couple of frigates belonging to the Iranian Navy. Further to this on 3rd July 2008 an Iranian Airbus (A-300) Passenger Aircraft was downed by the US Navy admitting later that it was a case of MISTAKEN IDENTITY. Later the person who ordered the shooting down was publicly felicitated by the US authorities which led to widespread angry protests from the bereaved families. This incident has left behind a bad taste and has been a bone of contention between the warring factions and the animosity has grown over the years with either side accusing the other of sabotaging their interests.
The aircraft Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln entered the TROUBLED waters fully armed with Sea to Air missiles and other state of the art warheads in full war ready mode. Their known stooges viz. the British Navy along with their french brethren are following their dirty footsteps.
The Popularity of the US President is on the wane and this kind of effervescence is one possible way to regain it.
Should this intensify into a full scale battle, the sea route for smooth passage of Crude would stop immediately and this would lead to spiraling crude prices detrimental to most economies which are already reeling under the onslaught of an impending recession.
The Iranians are capable of launching nuclear missiles and this could lead to a monumental disaster possibly known to mankind as the potency of the nuclear warheads has increased manifolds visa- vis the atomic bombs detonated over Nagasaki /Hiroshima in August 1945. The Iranians would dwell to any lengths to protect their ego and absence of sanity and a moment of madness could spell instant doom.
This does not exonerate Iran from its share of illegally hijacking of the strait and jeopardizing the fragile peace in the sensitive area. There is eerie calm in the area and one wishes at least one of the two with a lesser ego ratio to back off. The un- answered question is: Who will blink first????
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Satanic(s) V/s Rushdie
The Jaipur Literary Fest is one of the most eagerly awaited event where writers, emerging poets and philosophers congregate to educate, enlighten and entertain the motley gathering by sharing their precious literary work. It is a wonderful gathering of intellectuals who try to immerse themselves in a time-zone, albeit for a small time keeping aside their worldly desires and aspirations.
Salman Rushdie the ‘’controversial’’- (for the people who haven’t read his book or understood the contents) author of ‘’The Satanic Verses’’ was invited to attend the Jaipur festival . The organizers of the event thought that the presence of the Booker prize winning author would attract enough luminaries and spell success for the event that is already growing popular by the day.
Invitations were sent to the author and once the media highlighted his, would be presence all hell broke loose. The satans came out in hordes I mean the illiterate and extremist maulvis & mullas who dared Rushdie to come to India threatening to disrupt the fest in the event of him making it to the venue. The fanatical and banned SIMI went ahead and announced an award of Rs. one lac to whom so ever could fling his footwear at the author and succeed in hitting the target. Sinister Plans were also hatched to liquidate the author in connivance with the Underworld though the Police later rejected this claim as baseless and a hoax.
The ensuing State elections and fear of losing the minority Vote made the Central Govt. jittery who forced the organizers to drop Rushdie from the on-going fest.
Four of the assembled Indian authors viz. Jeet Thayil ,Ruchir Joshi ,Hari Kunzru & Amitava kumar expressed their solidarity with Rushdie by openly reading excerpts from the book- Satanic Verses.
Ironically, the Police immediately swung into action by registering complaints against the foursome while the zealots and the communal Satan’s got away scot free. The appeasement factor once again made its ugly presence felt.
Writers and controversies accompany each other. Sometimes the controversy is created to ‘sell’ a Book or induce curiosity about the contents which can pave way to be classified later on as a BEST-SELLER.
The Satanic Verses consists of pages which are a figment of imagination of the writer and is purely non-fiction. Any written piece be it some novel or passage or some damn blog captures the mood or pours out the pent up feelings stashed in the mind of the writer and it is entirely up to the reader to accept or reject the contents in toto. The writer takes the onus for what is written and if the contents are not good enough the scripture will die a natural death with the former becoming extinct faster than a dinosaur. Books and articles which are well written leave a lasting impact on the readers, increases their knowledge and gives them an opportunity of verifying the difference between myths and facts which are often juxtaposed in one another.
The funniest part is none of the fanatics/opponents have read the book and I am quite sure that almost the entire lot would have to go through a lot of pain and herculean efforts just to decipher what has been written in the banned book that too in a language alien to them.
India has always projected itself as a SOFT State courtesy its Spineless leaders by repeatedly banning books, plays and films on the grounds of enticing and spreading communal disharmony. Banning lures or entices people into wanting to see behind the veil. It will encourage people to smuggle such books/CDs and even read/Watch them in solitude on the internet. It can popularize certain books/films which are really not worth but ride the WAVE to populism because of the artificial and surreal interest /hype generated.
Salman Rushdie the ‘’controversial’’- (for the people who haven’t read his book or understood the contents) author of ‘’The Satanic Verses’’ was invited to attend the Jaipur festival . The organizers of the event thought that the presence of the Booker prize winning author would attract enough luminaries and spell success for the event that is already growing popular by the day.
Invitations were sent to the author and once the media highlighted his, would be presence all hell broke loose. The satans came out in hordes I mean the illiterate and extremist maulvis & mullas who dared Rushdie to come to India threatening to disrupt the fest in the event of him making it to the venue. The fanatical and banned SIMI went ahead and announced an award of Rs. one lac to whom so ever could fling his footwear at the author and succeed in hitting the target. Sinister Plans were also hatched to liquidate the author in connivance with the Underworld though the Police later rejected this claim as baseless and a hoax.
The ensuing State elections and fear of losing the minority Vote made the Central Govt. jittery who forced the organizers to drop Rushdie from the on-going fest.
Four of the assembled Indian authors viz. Jeet Thayil ,Ruchir Joshi ,Hari Kunzru & Amitava kumar expressed their solidarity with Rushdie by openly reading excerpts from the book- Satanic Verses.
Ironically, the Police immediately swung into action by registering complaints against the foursome while the zealots and the communal Satan’s got away scot free. The appeasement factor once again made its ugly presence felt.
Writers and controversies accompany each other. Sometimes the controversy is created to ‘sell’ a Book or induce curiosity about the contents which can pave way to be classified later on as a BEST-SELLER.
The Satanic Verses consists of pages which are a figment of imagination of the writer and is purely non-fiction. Any written piece be it some novel or passage or some damn blog captures the mood or pours out the pent up feelings stashed in the mind of the writer and it is entirely up to the reader to accept or reject the contents in toto. The writer takes the onus for what is written and if the contents are not good enough the scripture will die a natural death with the former becoming extinct faster than a dinosaur. Books and articles which are well written leave a lasting impact on the readers, increases their knowledge and gives them an opportunity of verifying the difference between myths and facts which are often juxtaposed in one another.
The funniest part is none of the fanatics/opponents have read the book and I am quite sure that almost the entire lot would have to go through a lot of pain and herculean efforts just to decipher what has been written in the banned book that too in a language alien to them.
India has always projected itself as a SOFT State courtesy its Spineless leaders by repeatedly banning books, plays and films on the grounds of enticing and spreading communal disharmony. Banning lures or entices people into wanting to see behind the veil. It will encourage people to smuggle such books/CDs and even read/Watch them in solitude on the internet. It can popularize certain books/films which are really not worth but ride the WAVE to populism because of the artificial and surreal interest /hype generated.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
The Forex Conspiracy
India and china were the two economies the World was watching with bated breath as the two asian giants almost wiped the economic unrest that the west was groping with in 2008/09.
The fag end of 2011 saw the Euro crisis rattling the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain and France with Germany being the sole exception and that too barely managing to stay afloat amongst these drowning European nationalities. The crisis soon engulfed the Asian Countries and all the hyped up feelings about the north bound growth rate suddenly changed both, gears and direction southwards. The rating firm-Standard & Poor swung into action and downgraded the ratings of most of the countries and all the positive vibes disappeared and the dark clouds of recession and economic unrest soon gathered storm with the immediate future looking grim and bleak.
The IIP(index of Industrial Production ) figures too were suddenly trimmed by the govt. but was not negative and so was the case with the projected annual growth rate.
The rupee rose to an alarming Rs.54 from a stagnant Rs.45 to a $ (a rise of almost 18% in 6 months) and was expected to breach further north to unprecedented levels before pressure from economists and other rational individuals prevailed on the Govt. to act and resort to measures to arrest the freefall.
The bank deposit rates for non Residents generally varies between 0.2% to 3.20% in most of the western countries .The Indian Govt. recently raised the interest rate from 3.25% to an astounding 9.75% and already an estimated 15 billion dollars is waiting in the wings to be pumped into the forex kitty .
The repatriation has already gained momentum and there is a mad frenzy to cash on the once in a blue moon offering. The rupee is in a buoyant mode at 50 to a dollar and is expected to be stabilize around 46/47 in the next few months barring any major industry growth rate hiccups.
The RBI did not intervene(obviously at the behest of the Govt.) when the rupee was struggling to keep afloat with major imports like crude which was getting costlier,the crude hike meant higher inflation so on and so forth. The immediate beneficiaries were software Majors like Infy, TCS, HCL Tech and Wipro which showed in the 3rd qtr. results posting remarkable margins reaping the benefits of the enhanced foreign exchange rate.
India never had a favourable balance of Payments Position since 1947.With time the gap between the export inflows and import outflows has grown from a CHINK to an ABYSS. In 2008 when the rupee gained against the dollar and the rate was almost 39 to a dollar the RBI intervened in a haste and sold dollars to prevent the rupee from gaining further momentum. The Govt. said that the move was essential to cushion exports from getting costlier and eventually turning negative.
On a similar note the imports were getting cheaper including Crude-i.e. our biggest cash outflow was curbed and barbed naturally. Exports would materialize at any level if they are of superior quality and sourced at cost effective and competitive rates rather than depend on the fluctuating exchange rates often controlled at the whims and fancies of the govt.
No one has any clue as to why no measures were initiated by the authorities to curb this abnormality at the onset.No other Asian Currency nose dived (whatever be the economic condition they are in) visa-vis the Dollar during this period,hence the inaction is not only petrifying and unjustified but smacks of some deep rooted conspiracy or some tacit understanding with the US authorities for fulfillment of some vested interest.
The fag end of 2011 saw the Euro crisis rattling the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain and France with Germany being the sole exception and that too barely managing to stay afloat amongst these drowning European nationalities. The crisis soon engulfed the Asian Countries and all the hyped up feelings about the north bound growth rate suddenly changed both, gears and direction southwards. The rating firm-Standard & Poor swung into action and downgraded the ratings of most of the countries and all the positive vibes disappeared and the dark clouds of recession and economic unrest soon gathered storm with the immediate future looking grim and bleak.
The IIP(index of Industrial Production ) figures too were suddenly trimmed by the govt. but was not negative and so was the case with the projected annual growth rate.
The rupee rose to an alarming Rs.54 from a stagnant Rs.45 to a $ (a rise of almost 18% in 6 months) and was expected to breach further north to unprecedented levels before pressure from economists and other rational individuals prevailed on the Govt. to act and resort to measures to arrest the freefall.
The bank deposit rates for non Residents generally varies between 0.2% to 3.20% in most of the western countries .The Indian Govt. recently raised the interest rate from 3.25% to an astounding 9.75% and already an estimated 15 billion dollars is waiting in the wings to be pumped into the forex kitty .
The repatriation has already gained momentum and there is a mad frenzy to cash on the once in a blue moon offering. The rupee is in a buoyant mode at 50 to a dollar and is expected to be stabilize around 46/47 in the next few months barring any major industry growth rate hiccups.
The RBI did not intervene(obviously at the behest of the Govt.) when the rupee was struggling to keep afloat with major imports like crude which was getting costlier,the crude hike meant higher inflation so on and so forth. The immediate beneficiaries were software Majors like Infy, TCS, HCL Tech and Wipro which showed in the 3rd qtr. results posting remarkable margins reaping the benefits of the enhanced foreign exchange rate.
India never had a favourable balance of Payments Position since 1947.With time the gap between the export inflows and import outflows has grown from a CHINK to an ABYSS. In 2008 when the rupee gained against the dollar and the rate was almost 39 to a dollar the RBI intervened in a haste and sold dollars to prevent the rupee from gaining further momentum. The Govt. said that the move was essential to cushion exports from getting costlier and eventually turning negative.
On a similar note the imports were getting cheaper including Crude-i.e. our biggest cash outflow was curbed and barbed naturally. Exports would materialize at any level if they are of superior quality and sourced at cost effective and competitive rates rather than depend on the fluctuating exchange rates often controlled at the whims and fancies of the govt.
No one has any clue as to why no measures were initiated by the authorities to curb this abnormality at the onset.No other Asian Currency nose dived (whatever be the economic condition they are in) visa-vis the Dollar during this period,hence the inaction is not only petrifying and unjustified but smacks of some deep rooted conspiracy or some tacit understanding with the US authorities for fulfillment of some vested interest.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Withholding Foreign Direct Investment
We were bestowed Independence in 1947 by the bleeding Englishmen who trudged home after being inflicted with heavy losses during the 2nd world war and realizing that the costs to run this mammoth country was actually proving to be a bane rather than a boon with rapidly diminishing cost of returns.
This certainly does not take away the colossal efforts, withstanding excruciating Pain and humiliation, the self-less struggle by the countless number of freedom fighters many unnamed, who laid down their lives trying to wrest freedom for their beloved motherland from the manipulative and ruthless British invaders.
Post –Independence we had adequate infrastructure like railways, the iron and steel industry and abundance of textile mills which were started in the Pre- British era for meeting their own selfish needs.
India at that outset in the 1950’s was miles ahead of other Asian countries but were badly let down of the closed mindset of our economists who really could not apply their rusty mind and logic to let in foreign exchange through FDI which could have changed our country’s destiny and landscape forever.
This closed- door economy pursued by each and every successive Govt. failed to rake in the precious foreign exchange which if invested in core projects and Capital intensive ventures like infrastructure would have done wonders for our now sagging and faltering economy. Good quality roads would have saved millions of dollars of foreign exchange doled out for Crude imported every year and reduced the disastrous accidents taking place routinely on our so called highways riddled with craters rather than pot-holes.
The ensuing primitive results are not only disastrous but also very embarrassing.
South Asian Countries like Thailand,S Korea,Singapore,Malaysia, Phillipines and Indonesia have marched past us confidently while we are juggling with tons of food grains rotting in our larder-courtesy Food Corporation Godowns on one hand and unable to feed some estimated 23 million who go hungry each day on the other.
The traders and other middlemen operate in a clandestine and cohort manner and see to it that the operating margin between the Cost of the Produce and the ultimate selling price of the produce is stretched to the maximum for their own self-centered and vested interests.
This group was primarily responsible for spreading malicious and unfounded fears about opening the market for foreign direct Investment in the retail sector. The Opposition leaders with limited or NO knowledge too joined in the melee which culminated in putting the bill on hold at least for the time-being.
The Countries where there is a 100% FDI in retail markets like Brazil, China and Argentina have time and again proved that the fears about galloping inflation and job losses is totally unfounded and uncalled for. Retailers like Walmart,Carrefour,IKEA and Tesco are waiting in the wings to unleash their products which could benefit the end users by the concept of revolutionary selling at competitive prices. The job markets too could be upbeat as these retailers would need local labour both professional and unskilled to market the state of the Art products. Local agricultural producers who are at the mercy of middlemen who pay them a pittance but sell the same produce at an astronomical margin will also stand to benefit if the bill gets through.
The estimated growth in the retail sector is projected at 10% annually
and is a win-win situation for both the foreign investors as well as for our foreign exchange deprived economy.For them the ever surging Indian middle class will provide new customers as their own customer base(in their resp.countries)where the growth rate has turned negative prompting them to turn to greener pastures here.For us newer job opportunities would materialse, farmers are likely to get a better price for their produce given the absence of middlemen.
India has already signed the GATT Agreement-General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and withholding this sector for 100% participation could tantamaount to penal action and complete isolation from trading with member countries a step which we can ill afford to.
This certainly does not take away the colossal efforts, withstanding excruciating Pain and humiliation, the self-less struggle by the countless number of freedom fighters many unnamed, who laid down their lives trying to wrest freedom for their beloved motherland from the manipulative and ruthless British invaders.
Post –Independence we had adequate infrastructure like railways, the iron and steel industry and abundance of textile mills which were started in the Pre- British era for meeting their own selfish needs.
India at that outset in the 1950’s was miles ahead of other Asian countries but were badly let down of the closed mindset of our economists who really could not apply their rusty mind and logic to let in foreign exchange through FDI which could have changed our country’s destiny and landscape forever.
This closed- door economy pursued by each and every successive Govt. failed to rake in the precious foreign exchange which if invested in core projects and Capital intensive ventures like infrastructure would have done wonders for our now sagging and faltering economy. Good quality roads would have saved millions of dollars of foreign exchange doled out for Crude imported every year and reduced the disastrous accidents taking place routinely on our so called highways riddled with craters rather than pot-holes.
The ensuing primitive results are not only disastrous but also very embarrassing.
South Asian Countries like Thailand,S Korea,Singapore,Malaysia, Phillipines and Indonesia have marched past us confidently while we are juggling with tons of food grains rotting in our larder-courtesy Food Corporation Godowns on one hand and unable to feed some estimated 23 million who go hungry each day on the other.
The traders and other middlemen operate in a clandestine and cohort manner and see to it that the operating margin between the Cost of the Produce and the ultimate selling price of the produce is stretched to the maximum for their own self-centered and vested interests.
This group was primarily responsible for spreading malicious and unfounded fears about opening the market for foreign direct Investment in the retail sector. The Opposition leaders with limited or NO knowledge too joined in the melee which culminated in putting the bill on hold at least for the time-being.
The Countries where there is a 100% FDI in retail markets like Brazil, China and Argentina have time and again proved that the fears about galloping inflation and job losses is totally unfounded and uncalled for. Retailers like Walmart,Carrefour,IKEA and Tesco are waiting in the wings to unleash their products which could benefit the end users by the concept of revolutionary selling at competitive prices. The job markets too could be upbeat as these retailers would need local labour both professional and unskilled to market the state of the Art products. Local agricultural producers who are at the mercy of middlemen who pay them a pittance but sell the same produce at an astronomical margin will also stand to benefit if the bill gets through.
The estimated growth in the retail sector is projected at 10% annually
and is a win-win situation for both the foreign investors as well as for our foreign exchange deprived economy.For them the ever surging Indian middle class will provide new customers as their own customer base(in their resp.countries)where the growth rate has turned negative prompting them to turn to greener pastures here.For us newer job opportunities would materialse, farmers are likely to get a better price for their produce given the absence of middlemen.
India has already signed the GATT Agreement-General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and withholding this sector for 100% participation could tantamaount to penal action and complete isolation from trading with member countries a step which we can ill afford to.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Stone Age Man
Deepak Jadhav aged 28 a constable attached to the GRP-Govt Railway Police was hit on the head by a stone flung by a unknown miscreant. He was standing on the foot board of the local train as it was crowded. Struggling for life he gave up the struggle after a couple of days, the cause of death being excessive bleeding sustained on a/c of the grave injury.
The only earning member of a family Deepak leaves behind his wife, mother, father and siblings to fend for themselves in this world full of indifferent and self- centered people. The only solace perhaps is that one of the surviving members will be offered a govt. job, they will be provided with an ex-gratia amount from the Chief ministers fund but the core issue will be brushed under the carpet and forgotten.
Many innocent mumbaites have been rendered visually impaired and few more unfortunate ones have lost their lives because of this menace which has not been controlled for the past few decades despite umpteen promises made by the administration.
People who have been arrested for these type of heinous crimes have often committed this for a high and for no rhyme or specific reason. Most of these youths are unemployed and often channelize their volatile energy into nefarious activities.
We have the Railway Protection force, the GRP and all possible other Para-military forces which are grossly underutilized or rather mis-utilized (to protect politicians and their ilk)which could be possibly used to counter such anti- social elements who try to disrupt the peaceful atmosphere by indulging in such shameful and disdainful acts.
The Police will work overtime to investigate this case and bring the culprit to book since for once, their own brethren has been at the receiving end.
The State Govt. meanwhile has immediately ordered a now familiar enquiry and the police is searching in the dark as blind as a bat to nab the unidentified culprit.
We Indians have time and again tried to challenge the age old DARWINIAN theory of evolution.
We have stopped evolving long time back and desperately trying to go back to the STONE AGE from which it all began.
Many such incidents has rampantly exposed the satanic behavior of individuals in this part of our Sub-Continent which if not controlled could erode the much hyped cultural values which we have inherited from our ancestors since the stone age.
The only earning member of a family Deepak leaves behind his wife, mother, father and siblings to fend for themselves in this world full of indifferent and self- centered people. The only solace perhaps is that one of the surviving members will be offered a govt. job, they will be provided with an ex-gratia amount from the Chief ministers fund but the core issue will be brushed under the carpet and forgotten.
Many innocent mumbaites have been rendered visually impaired and few more unfortunate ones have lost their lives because of this menace which has not been controlled for the past few decades despite umpteen promises made by the administration.
People who have been arrested for these type of heinous crimes have often committed this for a high and for no rhyme or specific reason. Most of these youths are unemployed and often channelize their volatile energy into nefarious activities.
We have the Railway Protection force, the GRP and all possible other Para-military forces which are grossly underutilized or rather mis-utilized (to protect politicians and their ilk)which could be possibly used to counter such anti- social elements who try to disrupt the peaceful atmosphere by indulging in such shameful and disdainful acts.
The Police will work overtime to investigate this case and bring the culprit to book since for once, their own brethren has been at the receiving end.
The State Govt. meanwhile has immediately ordered a now familiar enquiry and the police is searching in the dark as blind as a bat to nab the unidentified culprit.
We Indians have time and again tried to challenge the age old DARWINIAN theory of evolution.
We have stopped evolving long time back and desperately trying to go back to the STONE AGE from which it all began.
Many such incidents has rampantly exposed the satanic behavior of individuals in this part of our Sub-Continent which if not controlled could erode the much hyped cultural values which we have inherited from our ancestors since the stone age.
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