The threat of war between Iran and USA looms large in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait one of the most narrowest (barely 55 kms. wide) but one of the most strategic as regards to the export value of Crude Oil lies between the gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. About 1/5thof the world trade of crude passes through this strait most of which is from Iran and the Saudi Arabian Kingdom.
The proximity of the Saudis to US since the Gulf war is well known and this ‘’marriage of convenience’ between the two does not go well with the Iranian authorities since times immemorial.
The face- off between US and the Iranians dates back to April 1988 when the US vessel USS Samuel Roberts was severely mauled in a surprise mine attack launched by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
This attack was repulsed with the US Navy sinking/damaging a couple of frigates belonging to the Iranian Navy. Further to this on 3rd July 2008 an Iranian Airbus (A-300) Passenger Aircraft was downed by the US Navy admitting later that it was a case of MISTAKEN IDENTITY. Later the person who ordered the shooting down was publicly felicitated by the US authorities which led to widespread angry protests from the bereaved families. This incident has left behind a bad taste and has been a bone of contention between the warring factions and the animosity has grown over the years with either side accusing the other of sabotaging their interests.
The aircraft Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln entered the TROUBLED waters fully armed with Sea to Air missiles and other state of the art warheads in full war ready mode. Their known stooges viz. the British Navy along with their french brethren are following their dirty footsteps.
The Popularity of the US President is on the wane and this kind of effervescence is one possible way to regain it.
Should this intensify into a full scale battle, the sea route for smooth passage of Crude would stop immediately and this would lead to spiraling crude prices detrimental to most economies which are already reeling under the onslaught of an impending recession.
The Iranians are capable of launching nuclear missiles and this could lead to a monumental disaster possibly known to mankind as the potency of the nuclear warheads has increased manifolds visa- vis the atomic bombs detonated over Nagasaki /Hiroshima in August 1945. The Iranians would dwell to any lengths to protect their ego and absence of sanity and a moment of madness could spell instant doom.
This does not exonerate Iran from its share of illegally hijacking of the strait and jeopardizing the fragile peace in the sensitive area. There is eerie calm in the area and one wishes at least one of the two with a lesser ego ratio to back off. The un- answered question is: Who will blink first????
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